Storage

In the previous article The end point of this semiconductor cycle is probably not in 2026, I presented my conclusion first, but deliberately did not dive too deep into the specific details of the financial reports.

What we are covering this time is the part that is most easily obscured by market sentiment: When semiconductors rise, everyone knows they are profitable; but what truly determines whether a cycle can be extended or which company can capitalize on high growth more thoroughly is often not the stock price, but rather the profit and loss statement, capital expenditure, and product investment direction during the trough.

If I must make a more specific judgment, as of May 13, 2026, I still do not pinpoint 2026 as the end of this upcycle. However, if I have to pick just one major player among the giants that is most worth watching, it would be SK hynix. Not because it hasn’t gone through a downturn—quite the opposite—but because it made the most representative strategic choices when things looked their worst in 2023.

Regarding this round of semiconductor trends, I temporarily do not see a peak in 2026.

If forced to give an initial judgment, as of May 12, 2026, I am more inclined to place the truly critical period between the second half of 2027 and the first half of 2028, rather than now. The core driver of this current uptrend—particularly in US listed storage and Korean semiconductors—is not a general recovery, but rather AI pulling HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSD up simultaneously. If supply expansion fails, both prices and profits will rise together.

This also explains why companies like Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung seem to be “printing money” lately. The semiconductor cycle hasn’t vanished, but this time it is unlikely to collapse when demand first kicks in; rather, it is more likely to crash when capacity expansion finally catches up, and the market has already front-loaded two or three years’ worth of profit.